4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 32

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.38 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model