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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 9, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP