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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 79

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to MIN 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes pushed ob at MIN 35 for 10 yards (82-L.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.98 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP