Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 16 at the 81

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

(14:18) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to MIN 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 21-M.Hughes to MIN 42 for 17 yards (82-L.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -5.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model