Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 11 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew II sacked at JAX 13 for -10 yards (96-S.Acho). FUMBLES (96-S.Acho) [96-S.Acho], recovered by JAX-74-C.Robinson at JAX 5. 74-C.Robinson to JAX 5 for no gain (91-B.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.37 EP
64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -1.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model