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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 9-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.16 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 19, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model