Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – Jacksonville Jaguars 11

(11:32) 8-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to JAX 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 12-D.Westbrook to TB 37 for 43 yards (96-S.Acho).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model