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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 4 at the 37
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3
What Actually Happened
(:14) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at JAX 46 for -9 yards (41-J.Allen).
The Three Options
GO
+0.71 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.71 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -1.92 EP
KICK
-0.19 EP
- 54% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
-0.12 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
