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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 1 at the 51
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0
What Actually Happened
(10:42) 3-J.Winston up the middle to JAX 49 for 2 yards (54-D.Payne).
The Three Options
GO
+1.10 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -2.86 EP
KICK
-1.95 EP
- 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 81% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
