Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25

(:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to TB 21, Center-46-M.Orzech. 22-T.Logan pushed ob at TB 34 for 13 yards (26-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.97 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 75, worth -3.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model