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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:00) 9-M.Gay 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 7, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model