4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 8-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to JAX 21, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook. PENALTY on JAX-84-K.Cole, Illegal Blindside Block, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.80 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 52, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model