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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22

What Actually Happened

(6:26) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to TB 27, Center-46-M.Orzech. 22-T.Logan pushed ob at TB 32 for 5 yards (22-Co.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model