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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:24) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BAL 16, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-41-E.Moseley.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.77 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP