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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(6:33) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 85-G.Kittle (93-C.Wormley).

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.48 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 35, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model