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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 17 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:41) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews (54-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.50 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model