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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(12:34) (Punt formation) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to BAL 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 41 for 18 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.82 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 26, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model