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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 14

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(3:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Gould 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.50 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model