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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 14 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 81-H.Hurst pushed ob at SF 36 for 2 yards (25-R.Sherman).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.66 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model