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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 90

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to ATL 45, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.00 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 90, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.92 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 47, worth -2.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP