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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 18 – New Orleans Saints 26

What Actually Happened

(:44) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 48 for -8 yards (94-C.Jordan).

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.74 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP