4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 20 – Atlanta Falcons 9

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 3-W.Lutz 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.51 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model