Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 9 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 9-R.Allen punts 41 yards to NO 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris to NO 30 for no gain (53-J.Grace). PENALTY on NO-48-J.Gray, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.40 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model