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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 6 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles left tackle to NO 40 for 9 yards (43-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.91 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model