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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 4

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 3-W.Lutz 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.54 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 4, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP