Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(13:11) 9-R.Allen punts 8 yards to ATL 30, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-41-S.Neasman. Punt was deflected by NO T.Hill

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 78, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model