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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 30 – Seattle Seahawks 34

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 84-I.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.65 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 58, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 18, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model