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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 34 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(11:18) (Punt formation) 25-T.Homer right end pushed ob at MIN 39 for 29 yards (21-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.10 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model