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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 2-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to SEA 24, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP