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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 11

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 5-J.Myers 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model