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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(13:28) 2-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to SEA 29, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model