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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 53

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to MIN 17, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.13 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP