Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Denver Broncos 20

(2:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams to DEN 38 for 38 yards (26-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP