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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 34

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.25 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model