Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 17

(2:06) 1-T.Long punts 53 yards to DEN 14, Center-45-C.Mazza, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model