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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 1-T.Long punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-45-C.Mazza, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 57, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model