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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 54

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 6-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model