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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 1-T.Long punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-45-C.Mazza, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.48 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model