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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 74

Denver Broncos 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 6-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to LAC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-43-J.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.21 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model