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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 6-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to LAC 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 35-T.Pope MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-47-J.Jewell at LAC 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.83 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model