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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 4-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model