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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to LAC 28, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 35-T.Pope.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP