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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 17

New York Giants 13 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.Shepard (39-C.Sullivan).

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.21 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP