Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 31 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 6-J.Scott punts 46 yards to NYG 6, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.26 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 52, worth -2.04 EP

KICK -1.13 EP

21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
79% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model