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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 17 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(4:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-G.Allison to NYG 20 for 15 yards (34-G.Haley) [44-M.Golden].

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model