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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 41

New York Giants 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:25) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones right tackle to GB 39 for 2 yards (91-P.Smith, 94-D.Lowry).

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.55 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model