Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 72

New York Giants 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to GB 25, Center-69-C.Holba. 27-T.Smith to GB 28 for 3 yards (48-J.Tauaefa). FUMBLES (48-J.Tauaefa), ball out of bounds at GB 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.08 EP
51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model