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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-D.Prescott right guard to DAL 21 for 2 yards (93-T.Murphy). Quarterback keeper

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.92 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 81, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model