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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 43

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to BUF 2, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-83-V.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.76 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model