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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 26 – Dallas Cowboys 15

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 17-J.Allen up the middle to DAL 32 for 1 yard (54-J.Smith; 23-D.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +1.32 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP